RPT-Q+A-Thailand’s political crisis has no easy solutions
Mon Apr 26, 2010 5:17am EDT
(Repeats to add links)
By Martin Petty
BANGKOK, April 26 (Reuters) - Thai “red shirt” protesters hunkered down in their fortified encampment in Bangkok’s commercial heart on Monday, braced for a possible crackdown by security forces under pressure to drive them out.
Thailand’s five-year political crisis has reached its most critical juncture and is at risk of mushrooming into civil conflict between multiple groups all hardening their stances.
The options to solve the impasse range from difficult talks between antagonistic parties to a potentially bloody crackdown.
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For full coverage, click on [ID:nTHAILAND]
For a Q+A on the economic fallout click on [nSGE63604Y]
For a graphic: link.reuters.com/rap67j
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Here are some questions and answers about the crisis:
IS THERE A CHANCE OF DIALOGUE?
Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva on Saturday flatly rejected an offer by the protesters to resume stalled talks to end the crisis, saying they were insincere and no dialogue can be held in a climate of threats and intimidation.
However, analysts see no other way out and say Abhisit will have to talk with his opponents at some point, even if it’s through a third party or back channel. They say Abhisit wants to show he will not be pressured into dialogue and wants to have the upper hand before any bargaining takes place.
The timeframe suggested by the “red shirts” – house dissolution in 30 days with an election held 60 days after that – is unlikely to be accepted. Abhisit is also facing heavy pressure on two fronts: by moderates urging talks and by hardliners in Bangkok calling for the “red shirts” to be forcibly evicted – regardless of the potentially bloody consequences.
IS MORE VIOLENCE LIKELY?
Bangkok is gripped by tension, rumour, fear and uncompromising rhetoric. In such a climate, minor incidents can take place that could always spiral out of control.
The army and police seem incapable of ensuring security, or even working together effectively. Rival demonstrators are not fully in control of their supporters. And the motives of shadowy militants blamed for turning clashes between troops and protesters on April 10 into a bloodbath remain unknown.
Sporadic grenade attacks continue, including one near the home of a politician on Sunday night. Five grenades were launched in a Bangkok business district on Thursday, killing a pro-government protester and wounding more than 80 others, including four foreigners.
Violence has yet to hit the provinces but red shirt supporters have blockaded police and military convoys in a handful of areas the past few days, fearing they were headed to Bangkok to help in any crackdown.
CAN ABHISIT SURVIVE THE CRISIS?
He is under heavy pressure from all directions. An elections watchdog wants his party dissolved for funding irregularities. Most analysts doubt he can win a national election, if he does call a snap poll. Frustration is growing in his fragile six-party ruling coalition. And the army is always a threat to take over in coup-prone Thailand.
Political analysts, however, say Abhisit does appear to have one powerful force on his side – the royalist establishment, including the military, that is closely aligned with Thailand’s revered king. That in itself could keep him in power, though for how long remains uncertain.
Analysts and some government officials believe the “red shirts” may have tried to provoke violence to escalate the crisis and force the prime minister’s resignation. Some of his predecessors quit after military crackdowns or major unrest. Despite his urbane nature, the British-born and Oxford-educated Abhisit is a tough fighter. He has survived unrelenting pressure since taking office in December 2008 in a parliamentary vote engineered by the army. If he was going to quit, he would probably have done so already.
IS THERE A CHANCE OF A COUP?
Thailand has suffered 24 successful or attempted coups since 1932, so it certainly cannot be ruled out. Analysts and army insiders say it is unlikely now. The royalist military wants to ensure a smooth transfer of top positions in September, and a different government could threaten that. Most believe a putsch is only likely if Abhisit indicates he might call an election some time before then.
WILL THE MILITARY CRACK DOWN ON PROTESTERS?
That is the biggest unanswered question in Bangkok. The government and army are sending mixed messages daily about whether they will forcibly evict the protesters from their sprawling encampment in a ritzy shopping district in central Bangkok. The demonstrators are prepared for an attack and say they will not budge.
The “red shirts” are sure to put up a strong fight. Even if many protesters flee, several thousand are likely to remain to resist an offensive, heightening the potential for major casualties on both sides.
Some security experts say a crackdown could be almost suicidal for the army. The protesters have sealed themselves behind huge barricades of tyres and stakes, blocking roads with scores of vehicles and concrete pillars. The government believes at least 300 assault rifles, rocket-propelled or M-79 grenades are stashed around the site.
This could explain why the government and military are hesitant to carry out their strongly worded threats. The army tried to use force to evict protesters from another site in the city on April 10 that was far less fortified and failed badly.
However, Abhisit and the army know they cannot let the protesters stay there forever. Not only is the occupation hurting the economy, it is seriously denting Abhisit’s credibility.
(Editing by Bill Tarrant; Editing by Paul Tait)
Duidelijk beter af als de gemiddelde betoger en dus oorspronkelijke bewoner veelal uit het arme Isaan. En daar bent u als Expatt ook weer beduidelijk beter af(als ik mag aannemen) als de gemiddelde betoger en oorspronkelijke bewoner van Thailand.
Net zoals vele witteboorden criminelen :wereld:wijd, het is een pot nat.
ben wel beteraf dan de gem. thai ja.
maar ik zet de arme bevolking niet aan om te gaan demonstreren voor me zodat ik m’n zakken verder kan vullen en terwijl zij daar demonstreren en doden vallen loopt hij vrolijk leuk te doen in het buitenland.
geeft voor mij wel een beetje aan hoeveel hij om de bevolking geeft…geen moer!
waarbij ik wil opmerken dat de gelen geen haar beter zijn
Hij leeft toch in ballingschap dus kan hij niets anders doen dan “vrolijk” in het buitenland rond te lopen, het beeld wat je nu schept dat draagt bij aan het gevoel/beeld dat hij niets om de bevolking geeft zoals je zelf ook aangeeft, en laten we eerlijk zijn stelt een mensenleven in Thailand net zoveel voor als wij gewend zijn, dacht het niet…
als hij nu echt zoveel geeft om de mensen en de democratie komt ie toch gewoon terug, dan moet ie de bak in okay, wordt ie ook een soort martelaar denk ik.
geef mij dan eens voorbeelden dat ie echt om de bevolking geeft.
nogmaals ik zeg niet dat de gelen, blauwen of welke kkleur dat wel doen
de gelen hebben weer een oude truuk van stal gehaald las ik in bkk post, de roden hebben een complot tegen de monarchie
Zo maar eens ff kijken of dat bij mijn hotel in de buurt is, zit er 6 nachten, en ben niet van plan om eerder weg te gaan. Hopen dat het over 1.5 maand over is… :chin::zon02::chin::zon02:
**Skytrain to operate from 6am to 8pm ** (Info:voor de mensen die het openbaar vervoer willen nemen in Bangkok.)
[ul]
[li]Published: 28/04/2010 at 12:11 AM[/li][li]Online news: News Updates[/li][/ul]Skytrain will offer service at all stations starting from 6am to 8pm on Wednesday, the Bangkok Mass Transit System announced on its website.
Effective from Wednesday, service at all BTS stations on both Silom and Sukhumvit lines will operate during this time until further notice.
For information, call 02-617-6000 and 02-617-7300.bron: http://www.bangkokpost.com
Hmm ff het één en ander uitgezocht n.a.v. bovenstaande kaartje van het probleemgebied, blijkt dat er ongeveer 4 straten + 1 hoofdweg tussen de Red-shirts en mijn hotel zit (Sukhumvit Soi, op 2km afstand). Ik ga pas over 1.5 maand, dus ik hoop dat het zich een beetje weg trekt. :chin:
Alles een beetje met een "korreltje zout"nemen Stoffel!!90% van Bangkok is veilig!10% is waar ze verblijven(finaciele wijk van bkk)
Ik zou er eerlijk gezegd je slaap niet voor laten,Stoffeltje!
Ik volg het nieuws op de voet. Ik werk als reisbegeleider en heb/had 3 tripjes noord Thailand in de planning staan. De middelste is al weg gevallen en zoals het er nu uitziet valt de eerste ook af.
Door die uitspraak van het calamiteitenfonds kunnen mensen nu kosteloos annuleren. Flink balen voor mij maar vanuit het oogpunt van de gemiddelde vakantieganger wel begrijpelijk.
Die willen gewoon “een keertje” naar Thailand dus dat kan ook wel wachten tot volgend jaar. Die hebben 1 grote vakantie van 2 of 3 weken per jaar en willen daar het maximale uithalen dus gaan ze dit jaar voor een andere bestemming.
ikzelf zie het probleem (voor de toerist) niet zo. De stad is groot en het moet toch niet al te moeilijk zijn om te zorgen dat je niet ergens midden in terecht komt. Maar goed. De reis die ik ga doen / zou doen heeft een aantal dagen BKK op het programma. Dus meer dan alleen een aankomst of een vertrek dag.
we zullen het wel zien. Ik duim dat het snel rustig wordt. voor mezelf en voor de thai. snel democratische verkiezingen zouden leuk zijn. Ben bang dat het alleen niet gaat gebeuren.
Ik heb contact gehad met het hotel (per mail) en die verzekeren mij dat het hotel toch een eind van de problemen af ligt. Dat sukhumvit zonder problemen te bereiken is… gelukkig :chin:
** Back to Google News Troops fire on Bangkok protesters
(UKPA) – 16 minutes ago
Dozens of people have been hurt after Thai troops opened fire on anti-government protesters in Bangkok.
The two sides clashed along a major road connecting the capital with its northern suburbs that security forces had blocked with razor wire.
The Red Shirt protesters, who have paralysed parts of the city with protests for weeks in their campaign to bring down a government they say is illegitimate, had announced that they were widening their demonstrations and dared the military to stop them as hundreds headed on motorbikes and pick-up trucks to a planned rally.
Along Vibhavadi-Rangsit road, riot squads fired into the air to push protesters back but several tried to remove the razor wire, prompting troops to level their rifles and shoot directly at protesters who fled into oncoming traffic.
Police huddled behind riot shields, while soldiers wielding rifles took up positions behind concrete pylons.
The confrontation was chaotic and at one point security forces fired on a group of troops riding toward them on motorbikes in what appeared to be an accident, although some members of the security forces have been accused of siding with the protesters.
At least four motorbikes crashed and one soldier was carried away on a stretcher, bleeding profusely from the head. Several others from the group threw their hands in the air.
The shootings raised concerns that more violence was to come after government warnings that patience was running out in the seven-week stand-off. An Army spokesman said that troops were told to use rubber bullets but had authority to use live ammunition for self-defence.
“At this point, there is too much chaos for anybody to constantly report what kind bullets they are using,” he said. “We brought force out to stop them. At this point, society finds it unacceptable to have protesters travelling in a motorcade like this. We try our best to prevent losses.”
At least 26 people have been killed and nearly 1,000 wounded since protesters began occupying parts of Bangkok in mid-March, barricading major roads with tires and bamboo sticks and forcing the closure of some of the city’s luxury malls and hotel
