Last week, a commenter sent me a link online which said that an earthquake with more than 8 M would hit Nepal very soon. His link led me to a foreign website. I don’t know he was scientist or not but the website he recommended was scientific. I don’t know from where did he bring this link but someone had used the name and fame of United States Geological Survey to verify the claim. Though I had not trusted him, I wanted to read the article he recommended. The article had been written by some scientists. When I tried to read full story, I was taken to another webpage where I was asked to pay money. Then I understood the full story.
I know those Sci writers have bypassed 3 secrets. These 3 secrets can take Nepalese people from street to their home in a matter of a second. They will get sound sleep at night. They can come out of the mental trauma and the general life will begin within a minute. What are these secrets? Today I will not only tell those secrets but also give you scientific reasons behind them. Are you ready?
Secret No. 1
Aftershocks can not exceed the magnitude of the mainshock
The magnitude of the aftershocks can not be greater than the magnitude of the mainshock. 7.6 Ml is the exact magnitude of the mainshock stuck on 25 April in Nepal. All the earthquakes including 6.8 Ml of 12 May are the aftershocks of this mainshock. They are less than 7.6 Ml and always will be.
Yes, there was little chance of greater than 7.6 Ml earthquake provided that 7.6 becomes foreshock {If you don’t know what is foreshock, read this article}. But Nepal has already crossed the deadline of the foreshock. Typically, the foreshocks can happen in around 24 hours. So far we have already passed nearly 4 weeks. So the topic of foreshock is dead. USGS also has declared that now there is too less chance of large earthquake in Nepal. Neither is Nepal much vulnerable to the strong aftershocks in the future.
Secret No. 2
Independent earthquake is not expected in the same rupture zone
Simply, rupture zone is the area where aftershocks are appearing. Currently Gorkha, Dolakha, Kathmandu, Rasuwa, Nuwakot, Dhading etc are experiencing aftershocks. Having epicentre nearby, these areas shake more strongly with aftershocks. People are still scared of higher earthquake in these areas. Now the good news for them is that this current rupture zone can’t expect new independent earthquake. Because the stored energy of this area has been already released. The currently felt aftershocks are only the readjustment of the uneven plates beneath the crust which are less harmful. And they are the subjects to decline with time.
Source:Wikipedia
The above picture clearly says that Nepal has not experienced earthquake in the same region within a short time. There are many years gap.
Secret No. 3
Science has no way to predict exact time, place and magnitude of the earthquake
Have you heard scientists had already predicted this earthquake? If you had, don’t be surprised. This type of prediction was a long term prediction that even our illiterate grandmothers could do. Actually, the exact time, place and magnitude of the earthquake are always a mystery. There is no law, no instrument and no one that can predict the earthquake exactly. USGS also has accepted this fact.
But some scientists say that they had already predicted this earthquake. If they could, why did not they warn Nepal government to evacuate all houses before 11:56 of 25 April? The reality is that they were just preparing their report for the long term prediction of the earthquake risk in Nepal. It was just a coincidence that earthquake occurred just after some reports. Let me make it clearer.
See some major earthquakes of Nepal
Date Mag Region
1934 8.0 EDR
1980 6.5 FWDR
1988 6.8 EDR
2011 6.9 EDR
2015 7.9 WDR
Data source: Aljazeera
By analysing the above data, anyone can give a rough estimation that western parts of Nepal are more vulnerable for the earthquake. Because since 1980, this region has not experienced large earthquake. This is called seismic gap. Standing on this gap, some predicted that western parts of Nepal were going to face earthquake. If you reconsider the above data, that says that EDR experienced earthquakes serially. So no one can predict where earthquake will occur in the future. Neither is there answer of WHEN. Everything is a hoax.
At last, but not the least, I want to say that there may be exceptional cases in the history but what I want to emphasise that for the comparative prediction, earthquakes of different time and space must be similar with magnitude, intensity, types, etc. For example, Nepal earthquake 2015 got a big aftershock after 17 days. It does not predict that any oncoming earthquake of the world will experience similar pattern and there will be a large aftershock after 17 days. Because they may be different with magnitude, intensity, etc.